Wednesday, November 21, 2007

The hunt is on

So yes, as expected, Lloyd did officially announce his retirement on Monday morning. He will coach the team through the bowl game, and then the Lloyd Carr chapter of Michigan football will be closed.

It's strange to see the perception of the man in the aftermath. It's as though the
fanbase overall is tripping over themselves to try and figure out how they feel. There is a very strong outpouring of gratitude and warm remembrance towards Lloyd for all that he brought Michigan, but it is mixed with equal doses of relief and joy that he is finally moving on. The past 13 years have had some of the finest moments in Michigan football, but they've also had some of the lowest. He's been responsible for both.

What isn't being debated though, is that he is a class act and a fine gentleman and representative of the University and that we have been lucky to have had him here.

But there's also little hiding the excitement of the possibility that a new coach could elevate Michigan to a consistently elite level that, outside of 1997, Lloyd always seemed to fall just short of. So who might this superman savior be? For those who haven't been spending the past days scouring
internet message boards and newspaper clippings, here's a pictorial rundown of the likely and not-so-likely candidates:

Front Runners:
1. Les Miles, Head Coach, Louisiana State - You'd have to have just emerged from under a rock to not know who Miles is at this point. A "Michigan Man", Miles played for Bo and was later an assistant under both Bo and Gary Moeller. He has the pedigree of being part of Bo's lineage, yet has spent considerable time outside the program, including as an assistant with the Dallas Cowboys, and as the head coach of Oklahoma State and now LSU, where he has the Tigers poised to win a National Championship. The notion of a coach leaving in the midst of, or immediately after, winning a National Championship is unprecedented, but Miles has made it clear that Michigan is his dream job. The timing, however, is going to make things incredibly tricky. Could or would Michigan lure him away before the National Championship game? Can they afford to wait a month and a half until it's over? The best case for Miles to be the next coach is ironically for LSU to lose either against Arkansas on Thanksgiving, or in the SEC Championship game.


2. Kirk Ferentz, Head Coach, Iowa - Ferentz's name has been tossed around occasionally over the past couple of years as a potential replacement for Lloyd. Just today, speculation and rumors have put him neck and neck with--and depending on who you listen to, ahead of--Miles. Ferentz has had several very successful years at a program where recruiting and winning is much more difficult than at Michigan, however, his past few seasons have not been so shiny. UM President Mary Sue Coleman was the president at Iowa when Ferentz was hired there, and they are reportedly very close. In addition, Ferentz has a daughter at UM. Of the available coaches out there, Ferentz would be the most like Carr, both pros and cons. As AD Bill Martin has been quoted as saying he'd like to "clone" Lloyd Carr, this seems to point towards Ferentz as being exactly the type of character coach that Martin would strongly consider. It may very well drive the fanbase nuts, though.


Reasonably Possible Candidates:
3. Brian Kelly,
Head Coach, Cincinnati - If Michigan is looking for their very own Tressell--someone with local ties and a high track record of success at a lower level--Brian Kelly is that man. Before taking over at Cincinnati, Kelly led Central Michigan to the MAC Championship, and prior to that, he built Grand Valley State into a Division II powerhouse, winning two DII National Championships there.

4. Greg Schiano,
Head Coach, Rutgers - The man has built a successful program at Rutgers. Yes, Rutgers. Being an East Coast guy, though, it is believed he is planning to wait it out for the Penn State job to become available. Good luck with that, Greg. That job will not be available until Joe Pa dies, and at the rate he's going, his entire team might be made up of juiced-up cockroaches before that happens.


5. Rich Rodriguez,
Head Coach, West Virginia - Has been very successful in Morgantown, but WVU is his alma mater. Seems unlikely we'd pull him away from there, but it's possible. And how much would WVU fans hate us if we poached RRod just a year after stealing away basketball coach John Beilein?

6. Mike DeBord, Offensive Coordinator, Michigan - It's largely believed that he was being groomed as Lloyd's hand-picked successor, but his offenses always left Michigan fans wanting so much more. There was much rejoicing when he left a few years ago to be the head coach at Central Michigan, but he resigned there after just a few short, disappointing seasons, citing that the program had "barriers to success" (His successor, #3 above, didn't seem to have a problem with these obstacles, though you could argue that Kelly benefited from DeBord's recruiting at CMU). If he wanted to jump start his candidacy, a 91-yard, 3-point outing by his offense against Ohio State was not the way to do it. DeBord will get a courtesy interview, but Bill Martin will have a fan mutiny on his hands if he actually hands the keys to the program over to him.


7. Ron English, Defensive Coordinator, Michigan
- a more palatable choice than DeBord, but his lack of experience and relatively short tenure at Michigan are not doing him any favors. Nor are his defense's performances in several key games over the past couple of seasons, although his initial impressions were very high and he is very well liked by the players.

8. Mike Trgovac, Defensive Coordinator, Carolina Panthers - Trgovac is another former Michigan player. He has NFL experience, but no head coaching experience. I really don't know anything more about him.

9. Cam Cameron, Head Coach, Miami Dolphins - Cam was a long-time assistant at Michigan, where he was praised for helping to develop many of Michigan's star QBs and WRs of the late 80's and early 90's. His career has been up and down since then and has included stops with the Washington Redskins, Indiana Hoosiers, and San Diego Chargers. Unfortunately, he seems to be a much better assistant than head coach, based on his track record thus far.

10. Bret Bielema,
Head Coach, Wisconsin - Bielema's name sort of came out of nowhere recently. He's only in his second year as Wisconsin's head coach, and while he's been fairly successful, there does not seem to be enough evidence to prove that he'll be a great coach, and even less to indicate that he has any interest in Michigan.

Longshots:
11. Jeff Tedford, Head Coach, Cal -Tedford has done an amazing job at Berkley, building an academic powerhouse/football doormat into a perennial challenger in the Pac 10. He is particularly known for his success in grooming successful quarterbacks everywhere he's been. His disciples include Trent Dilfer, Joey Harrington (yes, Lions fans, please remember that he was actually a good QB in college!), Akili Smith, Kyle Boller and Aaron Rodgers. He is firmly entrenched on the west coast, however, there have been reports that he's not happy at Cal and may have hit the ceiling there and could be looking to move on to a more promising program. Unless he thinks Pete Carroll (USC) or Mike Belotti (Oregon) are going to be hanging it up anytime soon, that would most likely mean leaving the coast and heading inland.

12. Jim Harbaugh, Head Coach, Stanford - A year ago, Harbaugh would have been a very intriguing choice. One of Michigan's favorite sons, he burned a lot of bridges after taking over as Stanford's head coach by repeatedly taking verbal shots at Michigan's academic standards and expectations regarding their athletes. He had a very successful run as the head coach of the University of San Diego before taking over at Stanford, where his first season has been disappointing, save for a shocking upset over USC.

13. Steve Spurrier, Head Coach, South Carolina - Laugh if you will, but rumors are the "Ol' Ball Coach" wants out of SC. Personally, I can't stand the guy, (and he's 3 months older than Carr) but if by some chance he was interested in the position, you absolutely have to at least talk to him.


14. Jon Gruden, Head Coach, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gruden's name has been linked to some degree with both Notre Dame's and Ohio State's previous coaching searches as rumors have crept along The Internets that he is interested in coaching at the college level. But whether there's any basis in those rumors or whether they just keep resurrecting themselves every time a major collegiate position is open is unknown.

15. Bill Cowher, currently retired - The longtime coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers retired after winning the Super Bowl two years ago, but he is only 50. It is conceivable that he could still return to coaching, either at the college or NFL level, though he seems to be content to be out of it. His alma mater, NC State, apparently approached him last year and he declined, so getting him up here seems incredibly unlikely.


My personal preferences? It's hard to say where I'd rank the Longshots, other than Tedford being my overall clear number one (aside from the Ludicrously Unpossibles, such as Pete Carroll, Bob Stoops, Bill Bellichek and Cryogenically Restored Fielding H. Yost). Of the Front Runners and RPC's, my preference is as follows, with the cut-off line between "excited about" and "disappointed with" being drawn at 4.5:

1. Les Miles
2. Brian Kelly
3. Rich Rodriguez
4. Greg Schiano
5. Kirk Ferentz
6.
Cam Cameron
7.
Ron English
8.
Mike Trgovac
9. Bret Bielema
96. Osama Bin Laden
97. A wooden cut-out painted in the likeness of Woody Hayes, Block O cap and all
98. A friendly amoeba
99. Mike DeBord


Update: A couple other names that have been tossed about which I forgot about: Randy Edsall, Head Coach, UConn and Paul Johnson, Head Coach, Navy. Both have been relatively successful at lower-profile D-IA schools, and I'd list them probably under the Reasonably Possible Candidates. On the Exciting-Disappointing line, they'd probably fall somewhere between Ferentz and English.

Update to the Update: I also forgot Bobby Petrino, Head Coach, Atlanta Falcons. Petrino was instrumental in building Louisville into the national contender that they've become. I'd also file him under the RPCs and would rank him either side of Rich Rodriguez.

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