I had a lengthy post queued up on Thursday to post on Friday outlining the various bowl possibilities given the possible scenarios that could play out over the last two weeks for Michigan. I didn't get it posted, and now, with not only Michigan but also Ohio State losing on Saturday, the picture is far more simple, yet far from complete.
Michigan and Ohio State both are tied for first place in the Big 10 at 7-1. All other teams have at least two losses already, so the winner of THE GAME is the outright champion and will therefore be the conference's BCS representative and will play in the Rose Bowl.
IF MICHIGAN WINS...
The Wolverines will be celebrating New Years Day in Pasadena for the fourth time in five years. The other half of the Rose Bowl picture is still as hazy as the LA smog, but there is a very distinct possibility that Michigan could find themselves squaring off again against Dennis Dixon and the Oregon Ducks. *shudder*. Arizona State and USC are both within striking distance of the Pac 10 title should the Ducks either stumble, or if they cruise all the way to the title game. If OU does make the title game, their spot would go to an at large, which could mean the Pac 10 runner-up, or could mean another non-traditional matchup against a top team from another BCS conference.
Meanwhile, Ohio State's holiday destination would be a little less clear. Despite coming off two straight losses, there's a chance they could still be eligible for an at-large BCS bid, likely the Orange or Sugar Bowls. If they don't make the cut, or would be seen as unlikely to bring the $$$ with a disappointed fanbase (unlikely, I say, as OSU will travel well regardless of where they're at and their record), then the Capital One Bowl would have to make a tough choice between Illinois (who beat OSU head-to-head), or an Ohio State team that is likely to bring the fans. I think this one goes to OSU, since they have not played in the Capital One/Citrus Bowl since the 1995 season. That would suck for Illinois, though, to be honest. The loser of that decision will find themselves in Tampa for the Outback Bowl.
IF OHIO STATE WINS...
There is still an outside mathematical possibility that a win over Michigan, coupled with at least one more loss by 5 of the top 6 six teams could get Ohio State back into the Championship game in New Orleans, but the odds of that are incredibly slim, especially with three Big XII teams all round-robbining in the mix ahead of them. Though, this has been a crazy year, so I have to acknowledge that (almost) anything is possible.
While failure to make the Championship game would be surely disappointing for the Buckeyes, they would have to be happy about finally returning to Pasadena. It's crazy to think about, but in spite of (and in a way, because of) the success that Ohio State has had over the past several years, they have not been to the Rose Bowl since the 1996 season!
Michigan meanwhile, would most likely have a New Years Day date in Orlando for the Capital One Bowl--the biggest of the non-BCS Bowls. The Wolverines have not played in Orlando since the 2001 season, when they got shellacked by Tennessee in the then-named Citrus Bowl.
Again, assuming Illinois wins out, they will be tied with the loser of THE GAME for second place, but a decision between Michigan and Illinois should be a no-brainer for the Capital One committee. Not only did Michigan win head to head, but they should travel better, with the disappointment of the season being offset by the prospect of seeing Mike Hart, Chad Henne and--probably--Lloyd Carr on the Michigan sidelines one final time.
If the Capital One opts for the Illini, it would relegate Michigan to the Outback Bowl in Tampa. Thankfully, there do not appear to be any circumstances that could drop us back to another disastrous outing in San Antonio.
At this point, with several regular season games and a championship game yet to be played in the SEC, it's pointless to speculate who the SEC representatives to either the Capital One or Outback Bowls will be. How crazy would it be if LSU stumbled and the Capital One matched up Michigan with the Tigers in a Winner-Gets-An-Office-In-Schembechler-Hall-Next-Season deathmatch? (If you don't understand what I'm talking about here, watch this space later this week for more details.)
2 comments:
If you go to ESPN.com under college football and go to bowl predictions, Ivan Maisel has Michigan going to the Alamo bowl. I agree with you 100% that if Michigan loses they deserve the captial one bowl but everyone LOVES Illinois now and forgot that Michigan beat them in Champaign AT NIGHT.
If Michigan wins I think its off to face freaking USC again. At least they have shown some chinks in the armor this year.
Yeah, I did see that, and I suppose it's possible, but I just don't buy it. We played in Orlando 3 times in 4 years, but the last one was 6 years ago. We'll bring a crowd and a storyline (important for TV ratings) with it being the last game for Henne, Hart, Long, and most likely Carr, and I don't think that can be discounted. Toss in that we beat Illinois head-to-head and I think the Citrus jumps at the chance to take us if available.
If they don't, I guess it's reasonable that the Outback opts for Wisconsin, but I still think they'd take us if available.
Hopefully, this is all a mute conversation, anyways.
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